Gold: “The Labor Market and Inflation”

Weak U.S. jobs data and easing pressure for higher U.S. interest rates are driving up the price of gold. Michael Blumenroth attributes the price movements primarily to expectations being exceeded. Here is his review of the week on the gold market.August 13, 2026. FRANKFURT (Xetra-Gold). To me, one of the greatest mysteries in human history is the significance that financial markets consistently attribute to the U.S. labor market data released at the beginning of each month. The number of new jobs created is very often revised significantly in retrospect, and some data is based more on estimates and surveys than on hard facts. And once a year, there is a major revision of job growth figures, which has led on more than one occasion to the discovery that nearly one million jobs originally reported as created did not, in fact, exist.Weak U.S. Job Market Data Provides a TailwindHowever, it makes sense to pay attention to this data precisely when you assume that the majority of other market participants are doing the same and will react accordingly in the event of a significant deviation from forecasts. And that is exactly what happened last Friday: Instead of the expected job growth of 80,000, 23,000 jobs were lost in July. And that’s not all: Job gains for the previous two months were revised downward by 103,000. The markets reacted exactly as expected: The probability of key interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months was priced in slightly lower on the interest rate futures markets. As a result, Treasury yields fell, and the U.S. dollar came under some pressure. For gold prices, which had already begun their upward march last week, this provided further momentum.Consumer Prices Match Forecasts ExactlyThe markets also focused on the U.S. consumer price data released yesterday, which could have triggered significant market movements had there been a significant deviation from the forecasts. However, the data matched the forecasts exactly. Those who prepared these forecasts therefore deserve respect. The fact that the core consumer price index—excluding energy and food prices—rose by 2.5 percent year-over-year, a rate of increase not seen since March 2021, made the need for a Fed rate hike in September seem less urgent, sending gold prices up to a two-month high. This morning, gold is trading slightly lower, which could be due to the U.S. dollar regaining some strength.Gold Price Posts Significant Weekly GainWhile gold prices were still trading at around $4,240 per ounce on Wednesday afternoon last week, they closed out the trading week on Friday at around $4,345 per ounce after another upward surge. The upward momentum continued until yesterday afternoon. The weekly high so far was set just below the $4,450 per ounce mark. At the time of writing, at 8:00 a.m., however, gold is trading slightly lower at $4,385 per ounce.Xetra Gold Price Also RisesThe Xetra Gold price has also risen in recent days. During regular trading hours, it rose fairly steadily from €117.90 per gram last Wednesday afternoon to €123.60 per gram yesterday afternoon, but opened slightly lower today at €122.50 per gram.Outlook: Focus on Producer Prices and Geopolitical RisksFollowing the release of U.S. consumer price data, attention now turns to U.S. producer price data, which will be published this afternoon. This data is relevant because parts of it are factored into the core PCE rate—the measure of inflation used by the Fed to guide its monetary policy decisions. Financial markets will continue to keep an eye on the Middle East, and developments there will influence prices across all asset classes. Otherwise, the next few days are rather light in terms of key macroeconomic data. Moreover, it seems that half of all traders are currently on vacation anyway.I wish all readers a wonderful summer weekend before summer finally seems set to take a break next week.By Michael Blumenroth, August 13, 2026 © Deutsche Börse AG About the Author Michael Blumenroth is an investment strategist in Deutsche Bank’s Chief Investment Office, specializing in commodities and currencies. He has many years of experience trading products in these areas, particularly precious metals.

Gold: “The Labor Market and Inflation”

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